[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed May 24 06:59:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 240657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240656 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL IA INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 240656Z - 240830Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.  A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

AS OF 0640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS ORGANIZED ALONG A
COLD POOL FROM NEAR DSM SWWD TO APPROXIMATELY 35 NE STJ MOVING
GENERALLY EWD AT 35 KTS.  MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT NRN PORTION OF
THIS COMPLEX IS REACHING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM
N-CNTRL IA SSEWD THROUGH ERN MO/...DELINEATING THE ERN EDGE OF
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ALONG
AND N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS E OF A I-35
LONGITUDE.

FARTHER TO THE SW...MORE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NERN KS /E OF TOP/...PRESUMABLY ALONG
SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.  40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX
OF 60-65 F DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION...THOUGH RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING INVERSION OBSERVED ON THE 24/00Z TOP
SOUNDING STILL EXISTS TO SOME DEGREE IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER. 
THEREFORE...DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /PER LATHROP MO
PROFILER/ AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...THE REMAINING CAP MAY TEND
TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.

AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

37859751 39089654 40339491 40919390 40679328 40009292
38699401 37899518 37649623 37549675 