[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed May 24 03:14:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 240306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240306 
MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-240500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN-CENTRAL-NERN KS...SERN TO EXTREME
E-CENTRAL NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO...WRN-CENTRAL IA...WRN-CENTRAL
MN...EXTREME E-CENTRAL ND.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...384...

VALID 240306Z - 240500Z

LINE OF TSTMS -- CONTAINING INTERMITTENT BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AND
RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL DURING
LAST 2-3 HOURS -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER LATE EVENING HOURS.  PRIND
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS PEAKED...PARTICULARLY FOR NRN PART OVER
MN/ERN ND...WHERE TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
WEAKER BUOYANCY.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH SVR POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TO
WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE OVER PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO
AND/OR WRN/CENTRAL IA.

FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS...DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD
PERSIST...PARTICULARLY WITH LEWP FEATURES SUCH AS THOSE MOVING
ACROSS LNK AREA AS OF 3Z.  AIR MASS OVER MOST OF AREA SHOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
AND RELATIVELY WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS -- ABOVE SHALLOW LAYER OF
SFC COOLING.  MLCAPES/MUCAPES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LARGER ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL IA INVOF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...EVIDENT AT SFC AND ON
ANALYZED 00Z 850/925 MB CHARTS.  EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
MN/IA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE TO SUSTAIN TSTM
POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE...WHILE TSTMS MAY PERSIST...OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY BY APPROXIMATELY 6Z.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...EAX...FGF...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...DDC...

37520023 38229920 39649776 41609657 43249629 43899706
44419616 45319624 46369608 47239767 47769515 46959390
45379406 43919431 42149429 40569492 39999533 37739773
37389890 