[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 02:00:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230156 
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-230400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378...

VALID 230156Z - 230400Z

STRONGEST TSTMS AS OF 145Z ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS
ELBERT/LINCOLN/CROWLEY/KIOWA COUNTIES. SEVERE GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...AND ACROSS I-70
CORRIDOR BETWEEN LIC-GLD.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
STABILIZES...FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND
STABILIZATION RELATED TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  PRIMARY
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE
1. ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM CHAFFEE/SAGUACHE COUNTIES...PER COORD
W/BOU. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED MEASURED 40-50 KT GUSTS...IS
EMBEDDED IN STRENGTHENING AMBIENT/GRADIENT FLOW AND MAY PRODUCE
HIGH-ELEVATION WIND DAMAGE.
2. HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING E OF
FRONT RANGE...ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT RELATED TO MIDLEVEL DPVA AND ELEVATED WAA.

..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

40990635 41380632 41500603 43480607 43490397 43050399
43020282 40990202 38600210 38290345 38520406 39090409
39140531 38660531 38740594 40970684 