[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 00:14:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230010 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-230215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM...S-CENTRAL/SERN CO...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...WRN TX PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376...

VALID 230010Z - 230215Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SW-NE ACROSS WW WITH
TIME BECAUSE OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRYING...LEADING EDGE OF WHICH
IS ANALYZED AT 00Z FROM ROW-ABQ/CEZ.  ALTHOUGH SOME CU/TCU STILL ARE
EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY SW OF THIS LINE...DIABATIC HEATING HAS PEAKED
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SWRN PORTION WW...AND GENERAL CONVECTIVE
TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING IN THAT AREA. WW MAY BE CLEARED
FROM SW-NE ACCORDINGLY.

FARTHER N...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
SPREAD OVER NERN NM AND SERN CO THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...AHEAD OF
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY FROM SWRN NM NWWD ACROSS NRN AZ.  THIS MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH
LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT THIS EVENING TO OFFSET LOW LEVEL
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SERN
CO....HOWEVER NEAR-TERN SVR POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF SERN CO HAS
DIMINISHED MARKEDLY.  MEANWHILE STG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS
NERN NM MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH THREAT OF
MRGL SVR HAIL AND GUSTS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONFINED IN
AREAL EXTENT FOR ADDITIONAL WW E OF THIS ONE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

33490463 35620576 36620590 38790537 38720308 37810278
36850244 35320254 33540323 