[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222048 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/EASTERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222048Z - 222245Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
WY/NORTHEAST CO REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN
WY/CO AT MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ATOP
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO THE FRONT
RANGE AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INITIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
PLAINS PROVIDES UNCERTAINLY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WARM/DRY NATURE
OF AIRMASS AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CO AND WEST CENTRAL WY /RIVERTON/ THIS
AFTERNOON VIA MEASURED GUSTS.

..GUYER.. 05/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

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