[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 21 21:50:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 212147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212146 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-212315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SC...EXTREME SRN NC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...373...

VALID 212146Z - 212315Z

PRIMARY CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS WAS LOCATED OVER WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY
AS OF 2130Z.  THIS ACTIVITY -- WITH HISTORY OF MEASURED GUSTS TO 62
KT AT CAE -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD 50-55 KT THROUGH FAVORABLY
UNSTABLE AIR TOWARD COAST AND SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL DAMAGING
GUSTS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCRETELY
FORWARD-PROPAGATING TENDENCIES -- WHERE NEW CELL GROWTH ALONG
LEADING OUTFLOW EDGE EXPANDS QUICKLY AS EARLIER ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN
STABILIZED AIR ATOP ITS OWN OUTFLOW POOL.  BRIEF INTENSIFICATION AND
PERHAPS MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS GEORGETOWN COUNTY...AS COMPLEX CROSSES SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN CONFINED NEAR SHORELINE BY AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WLYS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
ACROSS PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER NEAR COAST...WITH 30-40 KT
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW DESPITE WLY COMPONENT OF SFC WINDS.  MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL TSTMS E FLO MAY CROSS PORTIONS COLUMBUS/BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES NC BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. 
SBCINH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FARTHER W ACROSS SC FROM BOTH SFC
DIABATIC COOLING AND OUTFLOW RELATED STABILIZATION.  THEREFORE WWS
MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E AS PRIMARY ACTIVITY PASSES.

..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

32317986 32638047 33078054 33198075 33038109 33128129
33098171 35177963 34847922 34847845 34507822 34727769
34217723 33527784 33427869 32657921 