[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 21 20:38:21 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 212035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212035 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-212230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/FAR WESTERN KS INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212035Z - 212230Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST CO/FAR WESTERN KS AND PORTIONS
OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 2030Z...STRONG STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO
BETWEEN BURLINGTON-LA JUNTA TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD...AS WELL AS THE FAR
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE NORTH OF DALHART. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...
MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL
STORM ORGANIZATION AS STORMS DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO
EPISODIC LARGE HAIL...INVERTED-V PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE
DCAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F WILL
SUPPORT STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. OVERALL ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

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