[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 211949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211949 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-212145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS....NERN OK...SWRN MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211949Z - 212145Z

THE PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION APPEAR TO
BE IMPROVING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS OF
MO/AR THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WARM/MOIST AIR MASS FROM OK/KS EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR WAS
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
VIGOROUS NERN U.S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SETTLING SWD INTO SWRN
MO...BUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS KS
WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND MID LEVEL MCV ARE DISRUPTING LOW LEVEL
FLOW/THERMAL FIELD. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING AND
LIFT/CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING MCV AND
DIURNAL HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SURFACE-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE REGION LIES BENEATH
THE SRN EDGE OF MODEST /30KT/ WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING AND FLOW ARE RESULTING IN ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
BASED ON SGF VWP AND RAOB DATA. THUS...THE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS FORM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

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