[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 21 19:47:40 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211944 
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-212115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN MA/CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211944Z - 212115Z

ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY
EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT AREAL EXTENT
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SLOT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY NEWD TO THE
BERKSHIRES OF WRN MA. WHILE AIR MASS IN THIS ZONE WAS ONLY WEAKLY
UNSTABLE... STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE VIGOROUS UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE
STORMS DEVELOP EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
WRN MA/NWRN CT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

42587191 41547323 41167413 41367462 41907411 42657305 