[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 211939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211939 
NCZ000-SCZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...

VALID 211939Z - 212045Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW AHEAD OF CURRENT
STORM CLUSTER...WITH POTENTIAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE THREAT/BOW ECHO DURING THE NEXT HOUR.  AREAS WEST OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE DROPPED FROM CURRENT WATCH GIVEN CONVECTIVE
STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS. AREAS EAST OF THE WATCH TO
THE SC/SERN NC COAST WILL NEED ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE/EVOLVE
QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY HAS A
HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL...WITH LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING OTHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING TO ADVANCE THIS BROKEN
CLUSTER OF STORMS ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW DURING THE NEXT 1-1.5
HOURS. STRONG HEATING AND LARGE T-TD SPREADS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
ACTIVITY SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL SC...INCLUDING THE CAE AREA... AROUND 2030Z.  THIS
IS RECENTLY EVIDENCED BY INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE REPORTS OVER THE
PAST HALF-HOUR.

EXTRAPOLATION USING CURRENT MOTION OF 290/45KT PLACES LEADING
ACTIVITY EAST OF WW BY 2130Z.  WITH PREVAILING WLY SURFACE
WINDS...SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEARER THE COAST AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 90F ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN NC AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN DEGREE OF HEATING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE
NERN SC/SERN NC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.  THUS...WW WILL BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..EVANS.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

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