[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 20 23:35:14 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 202332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202331 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/FAR NRN MS/FAR NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202331Z - 210000Z

NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR NERN AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN AR /IZARD COUNTY/
AND FAR WRN TN /LAUDERDALE AND HAYWOOD COUNTIES/ ALONG THE
QAUSI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE
INHIBITION HAS BEEN WEAKENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY
REMAINING MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG/.  THIS REGION
IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION DECREASING WITH
SWD EXTENT INTO ERN AR AND NRN MS.  THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  IN
ADDITION TO THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRACK EWD WITHIN HIGH PW AIR MASS.

..PETERS.. 05/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...LZK...SGF...

35059025 35479184 35939262 36479277 36509176 36268997
36028849 35698667 34698664 34838867 