[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 192306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192305 
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/NERN WY/FAR WRN SD/FAR NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192305Z - 200030Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SERN
MT/NERN WY AND POTENTIALLY REACHING FAR WRN SD/FAR NWRN NEB.  STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...WITH OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT PRECLUDING ISSUANCE
OF A WW.

SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN MT IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. 
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT SEWD INTO ERN WY
TO WRN NEB WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S
EXTENDING FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN MT/WY.  EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-50 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...
BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH 30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..PETERS.. 05/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

44480677 45110791 45760794 46160625 45700393 45150325
43490293 42400389 42680493