[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 19 19:51:44 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191948 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191948Z - 192145Z

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
MO/AR/IL/KY AND TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS MO IS EXPECTED TO AID STORM INITIATION IN VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ORIGINATING WITHIN CAPPED WARM SECTOR
WAS LIKELY FUELING ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY FROM IL TO WRN KY ATTM. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...AND SOME HAIL THREAT...ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...A GREATER CONCERN EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SRN MO/SERN AR SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY
REDUCED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARD 90F THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY APPROACH OF
LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS WRN IA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SURFACE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IN TURN SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WSWLY FLOW AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE RELATIVELY
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LFC/CLOUD BASE...STRONG TURNING
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE STORM UPDRAFT LAYER...AND ROUGHLY
40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AND
SHOULD DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW TRACKS
SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

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