[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 16 03:00:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160257 
FLZ000-160500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH S FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160257Z - 160500Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INLAND INTO THE S CNTRL AND S FL PENINSULA
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

LONG LIVED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF ABOUT 35 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE SRN
FL PENINSULA CONTINUES EWD AT AROUND 30-35 KT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND NEAR 04Z. AT THE SURFACE A PRE-EXISTING
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PALM BEACH SWWD THROUGH THE EVERGLADES.
THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
ENHANCED BY SELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE VEERING TO SSWLY AROUND 1 KM.
W OF THE BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MORE LIMITED...BUT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW SE OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP S FL.

..DIAL.. 05/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...

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