[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 15 23:20:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152318 
NCZ000-SCZ000-160045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC THROUGH ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359...

VALID 152318Z - 160045Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD ADVANCING UPPER JET. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-60 KT ENHANCED BY THE MID LEVEL JET WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. COLD MID LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF -16C TO -17C AND POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL
INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL.. 05/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

33507952 34197963 35897729 36137556 35367545 33797866 

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