[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 150154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150154 
TXZ000-150330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...356...

VALID 150154Z - 150330Z

CONVECTIVE LINE AND SVR THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF WW 353 BY 0230Z. THUS WW 353 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED
EARLY...BEFORE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME. SVR THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER
THE SWRN HALF OF WW 356 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. 

LATEST RADAR SHOWS REMNANT CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHING SWD AROUND 20 KTS
ACROSS SOUTH TX AND THE SRN EDGE OF WW 353. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY
STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT NO
ADDITIONAL SVR THREAT WILL EXIST. GIVEN THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
LINE MOVEMENT...THE LAST OF THE MARGINAL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE OUT OF
WW 353 BY 0230Z.

FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY WILL POSE THE MAIN SVR THREAT OVER WW 356 IN THE NEXT 1-2
HRS. STRONG MOIST ELY FLOW /PER SFC AND VWP DATA/ WAS OCCURRING
NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM KENEDY TO ZAPATA COUNTIES.
THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR NORTH OF THIS BNDRY /COMBINED WITH WEAK
AMBIENT MID LEVEL WINDS/ WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MVMNT
GENERALLY SEWD OR SSEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ALONG THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. ANY STORMS WITH THIS CLUSTER THAT INTERACT WITH
THE BNDRY MAY POSE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. PER RADAR IMAGERY A
SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE LOWER TX COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEHIND THE MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY. THE PROBABILITY
OF SVR WEATHER WITH THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...BUT MAY
INCREASE IF IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF AND REACH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR
SOUTH OF THE MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AFTER 03Z.

..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

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