[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 16:22:45 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 141621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141620 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-141815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...NC...NRN SC...SERN WV.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141620Z - 141815Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ISOLATED AND BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.  SEVERE TSTM WW WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY FOR WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA.  WW SUBSEQUENTLY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION FARTHER E AS WELL.

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED
WITH BAND OF WAA RELATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN
VA/EXTREME NERN NC -- ANALYZED FROM SRN PAMLICO SOUND WNWWD ACROSS
WAKE COUNTY TO VICINITY DAN.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX/MOVE NEWD
15-25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION SPREADING INTO
S-CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NERN NC. RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7-8 DEG C/KM -- EVIDENT IN MORNING GSO RAOB -- ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING WRN NC...WRN VA AND SERN WV...AND
SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL NC THROUGH CENTRAL VA.  THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING TO FURTHER REDUCE CINH AND BOOST MLCAPES TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM W-CENTRAL VA SSWWD TO EXTREME N-CENTRAL SC. 
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...STRONGER SFC HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIMILAR BUOYANCY OVER CENTRAL/SRN NC AND
S-CENTRAL VA...SW OF BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES -- I.E., 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING WITH SWD EXTENT
BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...WILL SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...

34028082 34458176 35458219 37648121 38327818 37417761
36057645 35067624 34067875 

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