[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 11:30:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 140900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140900 
SCZ000-GAZ000-141030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA INTO WRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140900Z - 141030Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

RECENT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH/EAST OF GAINESVILLE GA
IS OCCURRING IN EXIT REGION OF 70 KT CYCLONIC JET PROGRESSING AROUND
BASE OF UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW.  FORCING HAS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE NARROW TONGUE OF BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.  SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD
BEARING LAYER...BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. 
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST AS UPSTREAM COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES NEXT FEW HOURS...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME
CUT-OFF.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AS STRONGER
MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 11-12Z...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO
DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

34818325 34908262 34798165 34168108 33628115 33488177
33838251 34468399 