[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 14 10:25:55 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 141024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141023 
LAZ000-TXZ000-141130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347...

VALID 141023Z - 141130Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MID
MORNING.  WWS 346 AND 347 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 11Z.

SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F.  BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER LARGE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  STRONG INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION.  POSSIBLE GRAVITY
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR WACO MAY BE IN
PROCESS OF WEAKENING CAP.  AND...MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY COULD WEAKEN INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  IF THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.  THOUGH
FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION.

..KERR.. 05/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

31459717 31729568 30869438 29879333 29239474 29149570
29359671 29959722 30449737 

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