[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 13 22:35:30 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 132234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132233 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-140000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS INTO NRN AND CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132233Z - 140000Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

COLUMBUS AFB MS RADAR INDICATES THAT A TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OVER UNION COUNTY IN NERN MS AND LINCOLN COUNTY INTO SRN MIDDLE
TN...PRESUMABLY ALONG A NWD-RETREATING BOUNDARY /PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE/.  SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
INTO CNTRL GULF STATES.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...THOUGH SBCAPES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
JET STREAK /REF. OKOLONA MS PROFILER/ WITH AROUND 60 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS
AND SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS THREAT
WOULD LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO CNTRL AL TONIGHT.

..MEAD.. 05/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

34668919 35098883 35198704 34838610 33608601 33188709
33388851 34018923 

WWWW