[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 132140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132139 
TXZ000-132315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132139Z - 132315Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 2125Z...REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
TOWERING CUMULUS AND EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COUPLE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM S OF LBB TO W OF ABI AND THEN SWWD TO FST. 
AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS WARMED THROUGH THE 90S TO AROUND 100 F WHICH IS
RESULTING A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. UP TO 650 MB
PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/.  MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING RUC
HODOGRAPHS AND CURRENT JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS
VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH 35-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF AN APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
EXISTING LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OWING TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE
COOLING POTENTIAL /I.E. DCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG/. SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD.. 05/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30520238 31130254 32300054 32900149 33410137 33550019
32899942 32109932 31350014 30310190 

WWWW