[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101557 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-101800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE LA...WRN AND CNTRL MS...FAR SE AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101557Z - 101800Z

THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN
LA...WRN/CNTRL MS AND FAR SE AR. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY AROUND 17Z ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND AN AXIS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE BOUNDARY ACROSS LA
INTO SERN TX. A LINEAR MCS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN AR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES AS THE MCS TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST
ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE MCS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE AXIS TO
STRONGER INSTABILITY. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MESOSCALE THERMAL
AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL LA EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NE LA. ALTHOUGH
THE TIMING OF INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...CELLS COULD INITIATE
ALONG THIS THERMAL AXIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH
DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NCNTRL/NE LA AND
WRN/CNTRL MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
EXIST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WRN AND CNTRL MS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

31439096 31729228 32109295 32949302 33579228 33589113
33509034 33278943 32618888 31618930 

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