[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed May 10 11:29:16 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 101128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101127 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME NERN OK...SRN/CNTRL
AR...NWRN MS...FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101127Z - 101300Z

MIDDLE OF THREE LINEAR MCS/S CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AR THIS
MORNING.  INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING
VARIOUS STORM MODES...AND MAY BE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE SHORT
WAVE LENGTH BETWEEN THE LINE AND THE LEAD MCS ACROSS AL/MS.  
UPSTREAM...A PERSISTENT LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD
JUST N OF THE RED RIVER IN SCNTRL OK...TIED TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS WRN OK.

MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW ARCING FROM SRN MS ACROSS NRN
LA...THEN SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX. DESPITE THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID-SOUTH...THE FEED OF UNSTABLE PARCELS
ABOVE THIS SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN THE TSTMS.  STRONGER
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SRN END OF THE MCS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SERN AR
INTO NWRN MS THROUGH 13-15Z.  THE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONCE THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER OK
MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR A WHILE LONGER...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO
PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.

..RACY.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33699523 35799156 35778987 34608951 33229034 33059086
33159407 

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