[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 100901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100901 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...EXTREME NERN TX AND CNTRL/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100901Z - 101030Z

WEATHER WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE REALIGNED ACROSS THE REGION BY 10Z OR
SO.

A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING INTO WRN OK THIS MORNING
AND APPEARS TO BE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TSTM CLUSTER MOVING
INTO CNTRL/SWRN OK AND WRN N TX.  MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT
ARCING FROM NWRN AR ACROSS SERN OK...THEN WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
INTO THE VERNON TX AREA.  TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THIS
FRONT FROM NEAR FORT SMITH TO PARIS TX...AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED A FLOW OF UNSTABLE PARCELS FROM N
TX INTO OK AND AR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT.  MOREOVER...A 50-60 KT
MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
LINEAR SEGMENTS.  THE LINES WILL TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. 

THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX INTO
PARTS OF WRN AR...BUT THE SRN-MOST CELLS ACROSS WRN N TX/SWRN OK MAY
REMAIN POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO SWRN/SCNTRL OK.

..RACY.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

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32989532 33189686 

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