[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed May 10 01:08:17 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 100106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100106 
OKZ000-TXZ000-100230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX/TX PNHDL INTO SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321...

VALID 100106Z - 100230Z

MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING/
INTENSIFYING...MOSTLY HIGH-BASED...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG ZONE
OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS.

CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION INTO MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY NEAR
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 03Z.  THIS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INGESTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST POST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.  BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.  EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN
DOWNDRAFTS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR EVOLVING COLD POOL WITH
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

35670080 36060029 36119923 35799819 35249769 34379805
34109894 34250000 34450075 34760102 35180106 

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