[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 9 20:51:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 092046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092045 
TXZ000-OKZ000-092245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK...NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092045Z - 092245Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ECNTRL OK WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY UPON INITIATION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NE TX
ACROSS ERN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F.
STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHERE THE CAPPING
INVERSION HAS WEAKENED EVIDENT ON THE 19Z OUN SOUNDING. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
EAST OF OKC ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH
STILL UNCERTAIN...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH
INITIATION OCCURRING IN ECNTRL OK WITH AN MCS CLUSTER ORGANIZING AND
MOVING SSEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL PROFILERS
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN
OK AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS
THAT DEVELOP. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NWD INTO SE OK...THE TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

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