[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 9 00:48:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 090047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090047 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS THRU SE NEB/NW MO AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 090047Z - 090145Z

CONTINUE WEATHER WATCHES 307 AND 309.

MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSING THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTING VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS.  RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...WHICH MAY SPREAD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOWS INTO
AREAS WEST/NORTH OF MANHATTAN BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER/MORE
UNFAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MOST SIGNIFICANT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 02-03Z SEEMS
LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
FORCING NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND ENHANCED BY BETTER SHEAR
PROFILES NEAR SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MAY STRENGTHEN
SOME THIS EVENING AS A 40 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL JET CORE PROGRESSES
ACROSS NEBRASKA.  SOUTH OF BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...
CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING OUTFLOW MAY BECOME TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
FURTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS.  BUT...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..KERR.. 05/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

39819838 40299772 40629730 41209706 41709666 42549610
42799526 42449435 41539370 40749426 40109506 39689565
38989735 38859816 37989950 37560067 38320054 39079935 

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