[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 082040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082040 
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-082245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...FAR SRN NEB...NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082040Z - 082245Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STORMS MATURE BY EARLY EVENING. A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN OK
ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS
IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A CAPPING
INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
CAP WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SFC-BASED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AN EAST TO
WEST BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-70 IN NCNTRL KS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

36970043 37340071 37960097 38830096 39700045 40109984
40199914 39469798 38089785 36859864 36679985 

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