[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 8 15:14:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 081512
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081512 
TXZ000-OKZ000-081715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081512Z - 081715Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE MOIST AXIS FROM NEAR FORTH WORTH
TX EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO SE KS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
ALONG THE AXIS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 F. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THIS MOIST AXIS WHERE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SRN OK. THE STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF
OF INSTABILITY GENERALLY ABOVE 850 MB AND SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
REGIONAL PROFILERS AT 15Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. IN
ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOCATED FROM I-35 EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR THE OK-AR
STATE-LINE. THE SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS
MOVE EWD ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX.

..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34519823 35079769 35069651 34569566 33979528 33579529
33249559 32859609 32799649 33039759 33879835 

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