[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 072216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072216 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-072345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072216Z - 072345Z

...PORTIONS OF KS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
TONIGHT...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER WRN KS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS OVER KS...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 30-35 KT. THE
INSTABILITY AXIS IS FAIRLY NARROW...AS STRATUS DECK ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
KS MOST OF THE DAY HAS INHIBITED STRONG INSOLATION. THIS SUGGESTS
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LARGELY DIURNAL. SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
WITH STORM OVER LOGAN CO AND POSSIBLY A FEW COUNTIES EAST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH MCS LIKELY EVOLVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KS/OK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...UNLESS ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP
WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL OR IF STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPS. AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH.

..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

37689975 37050022 37040207 38550179 39610151 39980082
40009912 38489954 

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