[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 071456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071456 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-071700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...SRN AND S
CNTRL GA AND SWRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071456Z - 071700Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN AND S CNTRL GA...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN SC LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL SC WWD THROUGH N CNTRL
GA AND INTO CNTRL AL THEN SWWD TO SERN MS. A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL INTO N CNTRL GA. 
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MODEST. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IS ADVECTING NEWD
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IS
EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
DEVELOP EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE TN VALLEY SWD INTO AL WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH
THE SERN U.S. TODAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY A RATHER
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES. HOWEVER A 50 KT UPPER JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT. MIXED MODE STORM
TYPES ARE EXPECTED... INCLUDING MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS
WITH BOW ECHOES AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 05/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

30848684 32028480 33028374 33058148 32278086 30818239
30358478 

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