[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu May 4 18:53:58 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 041853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041852 
TXZ000-NMZ000-042045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041852Z - 042045Z

POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY
21Z.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF
ABILENE WNW TO NEAR BIG SPRING AND FARTHER W TO E OF HOBBS NM. A
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF SANDERSON NWD TO W OF MIDLAND. THE
WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8
C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND THE 18Z
RAOB FROM MIDLAND STILL SHOWED AN INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG HEATING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP. RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN TX DURING THE LAST HOUR. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...PRESENCE OF CAP...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
HEATING WILL HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO
INITIATE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. WIND FIELDS THROUGH 3 KM
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IMPLIED BY THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 05/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32439910 31529943 31450150 32330349 33040341 32890148
33049992 

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