[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 040626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040626 
OKZ000-040800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 040626Z - 040800Z

HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
AND NRN OK THIS MORNING. WHILE OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...THIS MAY OCCUR AT THE EXPENSE OF MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. A
WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT SETTLING ACROSS NRN OK. MEANWHILE...MATURE MCS CIRCULATION WAS
MOVING EWD FROM WCNTRL OK. BOTH THESE FEATURES...IN CONCERT WITH
STRONG SLY LLJ...WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITHIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A LARGER MCS
MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM
THEN SPREADING ESEWD. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION LIMITED AND
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LOW. HOWEVER... INITIAL UNDISTURBED
CELLS...SUCH AS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN MAYES
COUNTY...AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS/MERGERS...SUCH AS ONGOING
CLUSTER ON THE COLD FRONT IN PAYNE COUNTY...COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AT PRESENT...THE LACK OF STRONGER
FORCING AND SHEAR SHOULD RESTRICT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE OVER NCNTRL OK NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
MESOSCALE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
PROMOTES ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

..CARBIN.. 05/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

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