[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 040050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040050 
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR/NORTHERN MS INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND
FAR NORTHERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283...

VALID 040050Z - 040145Z

SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283 FROM WESTERN INTO MIDDLE TN. WATCH 283
IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

AHEAD OF MCV CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
POOL/MCS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KY/WESTERN TN...A NARROW WEDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND EXTREME NORTHERN
AL...REFERENCE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED RAOB -- 1400 J/KG MLCAPE.
MCV/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDLE TN/EXTREME NORTHERN AL OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
VIA A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...THUS
IT APPEARS WW 283 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z.

..GUYER.. 05/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33669103 35029172 36628692 35238623 34718719 34408859 

WWWW