[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 06:18:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 300616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300616 COR
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NEB...SWRN IA...EXTREME NWRN
MO...EXTREME NERN KS.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 300616Z - 300845Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS IN HEADER

SMALL MCS -- NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTERMITTENT REPORTS
OF HAIL AOB 1 INCH DIAMETER OVER SERN NEB -- IS FCST TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF AS IT PROPAGATES SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD TOWARD NWRN MO/SWRN IA. 
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
IS TOO MRGL FOR WW.  

MAIN HAZARD WILL COME FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES -- 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. 
SLOW MOTION OF COMPLEX...AND CELL MERGERS ARISING FROM DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN INFLOW REGION...WILL COMPOUND THREAT. 
RICH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTED OVER SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AS ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT
BOUNDARY...AIDING EWD PROPAGATION OF WHOLE TSTM CLUSTER.  ACTIVITY
MAY TURN SOMEWHAT SEWD IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS TOWARD AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY -- BETWEEN STJ-MKC AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW FROM SEPARATE
COMPLEX NOW EVIDENT BETWEEN EMP-MHK.  COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN
EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATOR GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST AND BUOYANT INFLOW
AIR.  MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED
MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO...AND PW AROUND
1.5 INCHES THAT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN LATEST GPS PW DATA OVER AREA. 
ALTHOUGH LLJ DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER MOST OF THIS
AREA...NARROW CORRIDOR OF 30-50 KT SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC IS BEING
SAMPLED BY EAX VWP AND MAY AID THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

40099627 40889580 41199559 41209525 41189504 41139462
40709477 40369494 39929525 39889575 