[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 03:40:36 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 300337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300336 
KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...ERN KS...NRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 300336Z - 300600Z

SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY HIGH WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO
SCATTERED/RANDOM NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE
ORGANIZATION GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT.

MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS NERN KS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED A LARGE COLD POOL AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO SHOW
SOME EWD/SEWD PROPAGATION INTO INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW. SIMILAR
SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS NWRN OK WHERE ADDITIONAL
UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED ATOP MCS COLD POOL AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY
FLOW IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FUELS NEW DEVELOPMENT.

FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS
WERE OVER SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD  CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND MESOSCALE
ASCENT ALONG NUMEROUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS SITUATED ACROSS SERN KS AND
NERN OK. ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH PRONOUNCED THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE
AND GENERALLY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGESTING THAT LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FROM EITHER REPEAT OR TRAINING
CONVECTION. DISCRETE CELLS ENCOUNTERING POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY ALSO ACQUIRE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
LEADING TO GREATER HAIL POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

36989666 35589745 35489891 36319983 37849929 40739682
41169575 39839543 38019649 