[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 30 00:46:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 300045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300045 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421...

VALID 300045Z - 300215Z

SMALL AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS WOODS AND GRANT
COUNTY OK THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
STALLED COLD FRONT NEWD INTO KS. MEANWHILE...ACTIVITY SWWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE INTO WRN OK HAS DIMINISHED.

DIAGNOSTIC DATA...ICT AND HBR PROFILERS...SUGGESTED THAT KS STORMS
WERE OCCURRING IN AN AREA WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS
IS CONFIRMED BY LEFT-SPLIT STORM NOW MOVING THROUGH STAFFORD COUNTY.
FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK BUT DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND MESOSCALE
FORCING ALONG THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH OK CONVECTION MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER DRIVEN BY INCREASING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO THE FRONT AND
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN MEAGER
SHEAR...EXPECT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

38949831 38889676 34549878 34540039 37279933 