[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 28 20:14:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 282011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282011 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-282215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282011Z - 282215Z

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS. 
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST LOWEST 3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
DRY ADIABATIC ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH STRETCHES ALONG THIS AXIS. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THESE TRENDS WITH AN EXPANDING CU
FIELD ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MODIFIED INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM BASES NEAR
650 MB.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND
SUBSTANTIAL DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
DOWNBURSTS WITH MULTICELL UPDRAFTS THAT DRIFT NEWD OFF THE DRYLINE
LATER THIS EVENING.

..DARROW.. 05/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

35450136 37229995 37169908 34020051 34260161 