[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 28 04:29:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 280428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280427 
NDZ000-MTZ000-280630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 280427Z - 280630Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND WRN ND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER ERN WY WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO WCNTRL ND. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO
1000 J/KG AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND OVERNIGHT. AS STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL THREAT AND/OR
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

46450381 46570544 47270589 48020581 48540548 48930478
48870317 48380244 47190255 