[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 280413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280412 
MIZ000-WIZ000-280615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 280412Z - 280615Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS ERN WI AND UPPER MI. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.


LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NRN MN AND WI WITH AN MCS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THE
STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF A GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY NEAR A MID-LEVEL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE JET IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH REGIONAL
PROFILERS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KT. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT ALTHOUGH MULTICELL MODE
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DECREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHOW STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

43588809 44018986 45248996 45958916 46388810 46218708
45738640 44988642 44258696