[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 27 04:57:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 270456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270455 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410...

VALID 270455Z - 270630Z

ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING EAST ACROSS NERN
KS/EXTREME SERN NEB AHEAD OF WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESOLOW.
MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...AND MASS INFLOW ON
THE NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN NEB AND WRN IA.

INTENSE STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS ERN KS /SWRN EDGE OF WW 410/ AND EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA ALSO LIKELY
TO INCREASE PER MOST LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
OVER PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUTSIDE OF WW 410.

..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

39189577 39039781 40349687 42009791 42219780 41409597
40759501 40209432 39139486 