[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 27 03:39:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 270336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270335 
NDZ000-SDZ000-270530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL ND INTO WEST CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...

VALID 270335Z - 270530Z

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 CONTINUES UNTIL
05Z...NAMELY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THE 05Z SCHEDULED
EXPIRATION AND POSSIBILITY FOR A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE/REPLACEMENT COULD BE NEEDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SHORT TERM 21Z SREF/00Z NAM GUIDANCE AND
DIAGNOSTIC MASS FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE
AND/OR EVEN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ND. THIS
APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN ND OVERNIGHT IN
AREAS NORTH OF I-94...IN PRESENCE OF DEVELOPING 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ALONG AND AHEAD OF LOW-MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. 

SIMILAR TO 00Z BISMARK RAOB -- 2900 J/KG MUCAPE -- RUC SOUNDINGS
FEATURE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A
NOCTURNALLY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER. COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ADEQUATE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY
HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 05/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

48300317 48890225 48719957 47059825 46049932 44799953
43419973 43180123 44300185 45930189 46260311 