[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 27 00:51:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 270049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270049 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-270215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND/WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...

VALID 270049Z - 270215Z

...INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND...

COMPLEX OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN SD THIS AFTN HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY
FROM HEI/GCC/DGW AND WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS ACROSS ND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK AT 00Z SHOWS A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY CURVED
HODOGRAPH IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
THE PROMINENT SEVERE MODE...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL BASED ON STRONG UPDRAFT CORES
OBSERVED FROM LOCAL RADARS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON
SOUNDING DATA.

..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

43040049 43000383 47520408 48940407 48930036 