[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 26 21:25:48 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 262124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262124 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-262300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0424 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/OK PANHANDLE/SE CO/TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262124Z - 262300Z

...HIGH BASED STORMS IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY HAVE
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...

TEMPS HAVE HEATED UP INTO THE 90S IN SE CO/ERN NM TO AROUND 100
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DEEPER CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE CO...EAST OF PUEBLO. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT IN THIS AREA...AND IS WEAKER FARTHER
SOUTH. LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. GREATEST THREAT SEEMS TO BE WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
VALUES EXCEED 50-60 DEGREES. THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD BE FOCUSED
FARTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN NM IMPULSE. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING HAS ERODED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...SO STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD DOWN THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH INTO
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

..TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

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