[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 26 19:57:25 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 261956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261955 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR...PARTS OF ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261955Z - 262130Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR ENHANCED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
CENTER IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU...SOUTH OF THE SPRINGFIELD MO AREA.  THIS FEATURE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND
GENERALLY PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.  EVENTUALLY...BUT PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...FORCING NEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION
MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS.  HOWEVER...IN THE
SHORTER TERM...INITIATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTH...WHERE ENVIRONMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE.  

LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 4000 J/KG.  DESPITE WEAK
SHEAR....EXTREME CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS IN STORMS...WHICH
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z AS REMAINING INHIBITION IS
OVERCOME.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS

..KERR.. 05/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

37429276 37239167 36699026 35999004 35269034 34769092
34499242 34519367 34579467 35359635 36269674 36069468
37039374 