[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 10:54:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 231051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231051 
NDZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO NERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231051Z - 231215Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE
STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING OVER ROLETTE AND
TOWNER COUNTIES OF N-CNTRL ND. MESOANALYSIS AND PLAN VIEW
VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN
AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...INDICATIVE OF STRONG WAA ALONG NOSE
OF 40-45 KT SLY LLJ.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT /VIA WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/
SHIFTING NWD INTO SRN MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO.  HOWEVER PRIOR TO
THIS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS PERSISTING OVER ROLETTE AND TOWNER INTO CAVALIER COUNTIES.

..MEAD.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

49009759 48409767 48229863 48269927 48509967 48759983
48999971 