[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 07:08:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230705 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-230830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL NEB/NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...

VALID 230705Z - 230830Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW 379...PERHAPS EWD INTO
CNTRL NEB THROUGH 09-10Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS OF 0640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INITIAL BAND OF
STRONG TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ FROM ARTHUR/MCPHERSON
COUNTIES SWD THROUGH KEITH...PERKINS AND LINCOLN COUNTIES IN NEB
MOVING 215/35 KTS.  FARTHER TO THE W...A LOWER REFLECTIVITY BOWING
LINE EXTENDED FROM WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES SWD INTO KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN ERN CO...ALSO MOVING ROUGHLY 215/35-40 KTS.

DESPITE INFLOW OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG SSELY 40-50
KT LLJ INTO THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW. 
MOREOVER...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER ARE
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DESPITE MUCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG.

INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO
CNTRL NEB AND ACROSS NWRN KS EARLY THIS MORNING.  MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.  SHOULD ONGOING STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD
POOL...RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT...AN
ADDITIONAL WW WOULD THEN HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

..MEAD.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

40790349 42020325 42990201 42980047 42299931 40949950
39870036 39060107 38620190 38810258 