[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 22 23:02:07 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222258 
COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NM...WRN CO...EXTREME ERN UT.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222258Z - 230130Z

POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH AROUND 02Z.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS SERN NV...SWRN UT AND AZ...FCST TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION
BY AROUND 6Z.  AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...MIDLEVEL AIR MASS IS FCST TO
DESTABILIZE FURTHER AS STRONG LARGE SCALE DPVA/ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS
REGION.  AS THIS OCCURS...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA AND MOVE NWD TO NNEWD...INTO
AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION.  LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT IN VIS/REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY WILL SERVE
COMPETING PURPOSES -- TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED
DESTABILIZATION...BUT ALSO TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL NUMBER OF DAMAGING
GUSTS OVER REGION BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
POCKETS OF RELATIVELY LOW-ELEVATION AIR MASS IN VALLEYS AND CANYONS
NOT ALREADY STABILIZED BY PRIOR OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH.  OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...STRENGTHENING LOW-MIDLEVEL GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH MAY BE BLENDED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FOR DAMAGING GUST
POTENTIAL.  WRN EDGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE PLUME SHOULD REMAIN E OF
ROUGHLY AN ABQ...FMN...CEZ...CNY LINE...AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED SFC SWLY
WIND SHIFT AND DRYING THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

40980684 38440602 37540548 37000575 37000599 35950602
35930629 34860621 35320723 37570823 38930992 40860967 