[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221840 
NMZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN CO/NORTH CENTRAL NM AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221840Z - 222045Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN CO AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NM. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST DESERTS...WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AMPLE CLOUD
BREAKS/BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON -- MUCAPES OF 1500 J/KG -- AND A LIKELY
UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST CO/SOUTHWEST WY
GIVEN COOLING CLOUD TOPS/LIGHTNING INCREASE. 

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG
SPEED SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL...A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 05/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...

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