[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 22 02:35:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220231 
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MID TN...SERN TN...EXTREME NRN
AL...NWRN GA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374...

VALID 220231Z - 220330Z

ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PAST SCHEDULED 3Z WW EXPIRATION
AND LOCAL EXTENSION OPTION EXISTS FOR A FEW COUNTIES FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO.  ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...HOWEVER.

NARROW 50-80 NM WIDE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MLCAPES -- ABOVE 1500
J/KG -- WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AHEAD OF COMPLEX FROM
NERN AL ACROSS NRN GA...BEFORE DIABATIC SFC COOLING BEGINS TO
ELEVATE BASE OF LIFTED PARCELS AGL.  SFC ANALYSIS...MODIFIED BHM/FFC
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS BECOMES SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WITH SRN EXTENT INTO GA/AL.  THAT PORTION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS. 
ISOLATED/ELEVATED TSTMS N OF MAIN LINE IN MID/ERN TN -- ELEVATED
ATOP OUTFLOW POOL -- MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED IN PAST HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO AS INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE...IN ENVIRONMENT
OF MRGL VERTICAL SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

35718966 35528883 35458804 35518746 35648704 35808693
35508567 35868494 34788410 34348449 34188610 34658628
34618698 34798788 35258974 